The third COVID wave is expected to hit India this month, peaking in October, according to a report
According to researchers, India could see an increase in Covid-19 cases as early as August, with the third wave peaking at less than 100,000 infections per day in the best-case scenario and nearly 150,000 in the worst-case scenario.
According to Bloomberg, researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur, respectively, believe the increase in Covid-19 cases will push the coronavirus pandemic into its third wave, which could peak in October.
States with a high caseload, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture,” Vidyasagar said in an email to Bloomberg.
The next wave is expected to be much smaller than the second wave, which peaked at a record 400,000-plus daily cases on May 7 and then dropped precipitously. However, given the possibility of new variants emerging, the forecast highlights the need for India to accelerate its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to detect emerging hotspots, and remain vigilant through genome sequencing.
In India, Covid recorded a 7.5 percent increase in cases after a steady decline for 11 weeks. From July 26 to August 1, India recorded just over 2.86 lakh new cases, a 7.5 percent increase over the previous week’s tally of 2.66 lakh. Weekly cases in the country have increased for the first time since the second wave peaked on May 3-9.
Based on the mathematical model, Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT Hyderabad, predicted that India’s coronavirus outbreak would peak in the coming days in May. “We anticipate that the peak will occur within a few days. According to current projections, we should be able to handle 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. “We will revise this as needed,” Vidyasagar said in an email to Bloomberg.
Last month, Agrawal, who is also a member of a government panel tasked with modelling Covid-19 cases, stated that the possible third wave of coronavirus could see half of the daily cases recorded during the second surge, with a peak between October and November if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed.
Furthermore, medical experts warned that the Delta variant of Covid-19 can be passed on by vaccinated people, fueling the surge.
