India Anticipates First Drop in Rice Output in Eight Years Due to Below-Average Rainfall

In a concerning development, India is expected to witness a decline in rice production for the first time in eight years during the 2023/24 crop year, primarily attributed to below-average rainfall. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare announced that rice output is projected to drop to 123.8 million metric tons by June, raising concerns about the potential extension of export curbs on rice. In contrast, wheat production is anticipated to see a 1.3% increase from the previous year, reaching 112 million tons.

This revelation holds significant global implications, as India is the world’s largest exporter of rice. The government had imposed a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice in July, resulting in a surge in global prices. The drop in rice production could prompt Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration to consider extending export restrictions as a measure to stabilize domestic food prices, especially with an upcoming general election on the horizon.

The prolonged curbs on rice exports from India could further impact global food prices, given the low inventories in key exporting countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Myanmar. This development underscores the challenges faced by India’s agricultural sector due to unpredictable weather patterns, emphasizing the critical importance of securing food security measures in the face of potential disruptions.