2024 Set to Become the World’s Hottest Year on Record

Last month was the hottest June on record, continuing a streak of unprecedented temperatures, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This follows a pattern where every month since June 2023 has ranked as the hottest compared to corresponding months in previous years.

The latest data suggest that 2024 could surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record. This trend is driven by human-caused climate change and the El Nino natural weather phenomenon, which have pushed temperatures to new highs. Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, estimates a 95% chance that 2024 will be the warmest year since global surface temperature records began in the mid-1800s.

The impact of these temperature rises has already been felt worldwide. Over 1,000 people died due to extreme heat during the haj pilgrimage last month. Heat-related deaths were also reported in New Delhi, which experienced an unusually prolonged heatwave, and among tourists in Greece.

Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, highlighted the significant role of the El Nino phenomenon, which naturally warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, thereby increasing global average temperatures. While El Nino is beyond human control, Otto stressed the importance of reducing fossil fuel consumption to combat climate change.

Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels remain the primary driver of climate change. Despite global promises to curb these emissions, countries have collectively failed to make significant reductions, leading to a steady rise in temperatures over the decades.

In the 12 months ending in June 2024, the world’s average temperature was the highest on record for any such period, at 1.64 degrees Celsius above the average in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, according to C3S.

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