Amid ongoing concerns about environmental vulnerabilities in Kerala, spurred by recent deadly landslides in Wayanad, a new study highlights growing fears for the state’s coastal cities. The Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) in Bengaluru has released a significant report titled “Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Inundation Maps for Selected Indian Coastal Cities,” shedding light on the increasing risks faced by Kochi, Kozhikode, and Thiruvananthapuram.
The report provides projections on sea level rise (SLR) for 15 Indian coastal cities under various climate scenarios. It predicts that sea levels will rise throughout the century, with Kochi, Kozhikode, and Thiruvananthapuram among those experiencing notable increases. The study examines both medium and high emission Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100.
According to the SSP2-4.5 scenario, where CO2 emissions remain at current levels until 2050 before declining, sea levels could rise by up to 76.2 cm in Mumbai and 74.9 cm in Kochi by 2100. In the high-emission scenario, where CO2 emissions double by 2100, Kochi could see a rise of 100 cm, making it one of the most affected cities.
The study identifies several vulnerable areas:
Kochi: Key locations at risk include the airport, Ernakulam Wharf, Fort Kochi beach, and Subhash Bose Park.
Kozhikode: Areas like Marad and Kamburam beach, Theeram Bliss Park, and Puthiyappa fishing harbour are expected to face inundation.
Thiruvananthapuram: Sites such as the airport, Pozhikkara beach, and Shangumugham beach may be submerged.
The potential impact of SLR-induced inundation extends beyond just physical inundation. It threatens essential sectors like water, agriculture, forestry, and biodiversity, affecting local economies and ecosystems. The report also notes that beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests in these coastal cities are at particular risk, which could impact tourism and local livelihoods.
Kochi Corporation Mayor M Anilkumar has voiced concerns over the study’s findings, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address these threats. He stated that while the corporation is already taking steps to mitigate risks, further actions are necessary to prevent severe challenges in the future.
Historical data indicates a worrying trend in sea level rise across Indian coasts, with Mumbai experiencing the highest increase. The study also highlights that while Thiruvananthapuram may have a smaller overall inundation area compared to other cities, it faces significant urban area subsidence.
This new data underscores the urgent need for both immediate and long-term strategies to manage sea level rise and mitigate its impacts on Kerala’s coastal regions.
