China’s natural population has seen a drastic decline, with over 2 million fewer people in 2023, according to the latest statistics. The nation recorded 9.0 million births against 11.1 million deaths, continuing a significant downward trend in birth rates that have halved since 2016. Meanwhile, deaths have seen a modest rise, solidifying a trend of population shrinkage that began in 2022 when deaths first outnumbered births.
With a total fertility rate (TFR) of approximately 1.0 in 2023, China is on a trajectory similar to South Korea, which has the world’s lowest TFR at 0.72. The population crisis in China is expected to be more severe than in Japan, which experienced a demographic shift in the mid-1990s. Japan’s economy benefited from China’s rising demand, but China lacks a similar buffer.
While a marginal rebound in birth rates might occur due to delayed marriages after the lifting of COVID restrictions and the auspicious Year of the Dragon in 2024, experts predict a renewed decline by 2025. Long-term recovery in fertility rates seems improbable, as major Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai have TFRs below 1, mirroring patterns seen in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore.
This demographic crisis casts doubt on China’s economic future. With the number of consumers falling by millions annually and a shrinking demand for housing, the likelihood of China surpassing the U.S. economy in size appears slim. These trends also challenge the perception of China as a rising superpower, prompting questions about the global reaction to its trajectory.
Interestingly, the steep post-2016 decline in birth rates is almost unprecedented in peacetime. Speculation persists that pre-2016 birth data may have been inflated to justify policy changes, raising concerns about the reliability of recent statistics. This demographic shift not only threatens China’s growth but reshapes its global standing.
